“Dividing an elephant in half does not produce two small elephants”. Despite the apparent flattening of some countries’ COVID-19 curves, deeper insights from mathematical modelling tell a different story of manifest outcomes that could be traced to the underlying wide regional differentials in population-normalised COVID-19 testing rates.

Video link: https://twitter.com/citizentvkenya/status/1354495690139963392?s=09

Global Overview

As of January 19, 2021, there were more than 96.6 million confirmed COVID-19 cases globally, more than 3.3 million or 3% of those cases in Africa. The recent global case fatality rate has been more or less constant at 2.1% with a recovery rate of 72%. These figures…


It is high time mentorship efforts started focusing more on developing learners while they are still in college to prepare them for the world of work. The usual wait to start real mentorship after they have graduated is a whole stage too late, dealing a heavy blow on industry efforts like a fall off the cliff edge.

Youth Despair and Cliff Edge Experience

The International Mentors Day was celebrated on January 17, 2021. The following reflections can do justice to such an important day in the present and future of youth.

Mentorship remains a priceless endeavour, a genuine call to be a multiplier of the little…


The plane-mirror view throws a virtual image of bygone headwaters of COVID-19 in Africa, but the real image downstream could turn out to be different especially if we peek at the sorry state of basic schools in deprived environments.

Education Sector Management as a Mirror of Leadership

COVID-19 has dealt the education sector a major blow, a complex sector deeply embedded in social systems. Though it is undisputed that social systems are more complex than mechanical systems, more research and rigorous attention has been given to designing courses of action that address mechanical or technological systems, than social systems. Isn’t it a paradox to relegate decisions that affect…


Telling metrics from a simplified mathematical model

Key Highlights

At 164,386 total cases on May 12, 2021, the curve of Kenya’s third COVID-19 wave has since February 26 stayed close to the simulated ebbing path, mathematically within 1%. The ebbing path has simulated a mathematical peak of 166,775 cumulative cases on May 26, 2021 — now only two weeks away.

The mathematical model developed in this study series for Kenya did not factor in the Indian variant, which as of May 12 had been confirmed among 15 people in Kenya.

As a policy metric, assuming the established testing rate in Kenya, exceeding a daily average of 171 new cases…


New insights from the model of scenarios

Key Highlights

As India battles her second wave with daily global records of new cases, Kenya’s third wave could be ebbing by late May, but perhaps only to test this well-known home of optimists and marathoners with a tactical retreat that may eventually give way to a more vicious fourth wave if the government, politicians, and the public quickly lower their guard in their characteristic response amid pandemic fatigue.

The rate of vaccination in Africa lags far behind the rest of the world, signalling the possibility of missing the target of vaccinating 60% of the population by the end of 2022. …


Simulating the wavy flows of an increasingly familiar enemy in Kenya

Key Highlights

The highest recovery rates globally have been more than 90%, Israel posting the highest rate of 99% currently with an impressive combination of a very low case fatality rate of 0.8% as of April 22. Turkey has similar impressive scores with a high recovery rate of 87% and a case fatality rate of 0.8%.

The fact that India and Brazil have stayed in the top-three global position of the ravaged league of leading COVID-19 country cases despite having lower population-normalised testing rates is telling: these two countries may in the long term turn the tables on the USA with high…


Critical insights from mathematical modelling

Key Highlights

Like a beckoning vista of mountain ranges, every move closer to winning this war reveals the scale masking the disguised distance setting apart the distant milestones.

As we all desire an end to the pandemic so as to enjoy free social interactions in the campestral beauty of our diverse open fields, welcoming and practising all the recommended containment measures must remain our first line of defence.

The wavy nature of the infections in Kenya has established a sinusoidal curve which reaches its peak every four months. Could this be telling of a fourth wave starting July 2021?

Global Overview

As of April…


From data to decisions — explaining the decisive metrics for Kenya and implications for Africa

Global Review

As of March 25, 2021, the global tally of COVID-19 cases was more than 125.7 million. The confirmed COVID-19 cases were 126,170 in Kenya and more than 4.14 million in Africa (about the number of confirmed cases in the UK alone). The global average case fatality rate was still steady at 2.2%, just below Africa’s 2.7% but above Kenya’s 1.7%. Indicative of a fast-rising curve, the cases in Kenya shot up to 128,178 on March 26, 2021

The pandemic’s wily and wavy warring style of strategic retreat and overwhelming ambush has now been confirmed the world over. The general equation…


Reflections on why Kenya needs stricter COVID-19 containment measures

If the tried and tested yearlong COVID-19 modelling experience in this study series for data-driven policy advice is anything to go by, then it follows that Kenya needs stricter enforcement of, and compliance with, COVID-19 containment measures in 2021. The extension of the curfew and banning of mass gatherings that were announced on March 12, 2021 should not be a surprise, after all. The map below shows that the main urban centres in Kenya were already in the red by March 11, 2021, in terms of their dominant shares of the national tally of COVID-19 cases. …


Why enforcement and compliance must now be stricter in Kenya

Recent data on positivity rates and daily confirmed cases tell the story of a third COVID-19 wave in Kenya, for the third time cementing the character of the disease as a wily, wavy warrior waging the war of tactical retreat and overwhelming ambush.

Critical Moment

March 12, 2021 marks another critical moment for Kenya. It is a year since the first COVID-19 case was confirmed in the country. The President is scheduled to announce a review of the COVID-19 containment rules. The containment regime of the last sixty days elapses on this…

Nashon J. Adero

A geospatial and systems modelling expert, lecturer, youth mentor and trained policy analyst, who applies system dynamics to model complex adaptive systems.

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