Compact Multi-Scale Models of COVID-19: Critical Metrics for Decision Makers
Visualising the cross-country trends of a global crisis and lessons for Kenya on reopening and reclosure
The Big Question
To what extent have the COVID-19 containment strategies adopted in different countries been successful? Which country can claim long-term success worth emulating yet? No! It must be still too early for a novel virus sending scientists to their studious research corners.
Then, what lessons can Africa draw from the global COVID-19 developments? As a key reference point in East Africa, should Kenya be open to alternative views or just read the signs from other countries and resort to tougher lockdown measures since the easing of restrictions on July 6, 2020, subsequently saw a substantial surge in confirmed COVID-19 cases?
This special edition consolidates the key lessons from the previously shared IBD models of COVID-19 and generates a compact bandwidth of projected scenarios of growth in COVID-19 cases at various scales: globally, in Africa, and nationally in Kenya and several top countries in the COVID-19 list such as the USA, Brazil, India, Russia, Peru, and Chile. The objective is to contribute to the generative dialogue needed to inform long-term policy, planning, and monitoring of the pandemic and its impacts on economies.
