Coronavirus Critical Curves: Crucial Insights from Mathematical Modelling
Analysis of trends, perspectives and lessons for Kenya and Africa
Grim Coronavirus Statistics: Summary of Key Metrics
We are starting the weekend in Kenya with more than a hundred confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus infections. The confirmed global cases have exceeded one million. Taking the reported cases of infections, the average global death rate of 5% and the average recovery rate of 21% paint grim statistics. These global figures, so far, translate into 7 deaths for every one million people on Earth! From research into the latest data from 21st March 2020, the business-as-usual scenario gives the global equation Y = 315250exp(0.1t), which projects the worldwide coronavirus cases to hit 1.5–1.7 million by 7th April 2020. This insight introduces a new week likely to record 2 million coronavirus cases worldwide by 12th April 2020.
This study report has covered 14 countries which have posted enough data for trend analysis, including China, using the data from 10th January to 31st March 2020. Over the study period for these countries, the observed daily growth rates in the exponential phases varied from 11% in Hong Kong to 26% in the USA, staggering rates by any measure. Spain’s daily rate of 20% over the period has been much…
