COVID-19: Calibrating Containment Strategies using Intelligence from Space

Analysis of spatial intelligence from community mobility reports and implications for policy options in Kenya and Africa

The new month of May, new trends in global COVID-19 numbers

The month of May has ushered in a new COVID-19 consciousness, notably in Africa. Having recorded surging numbers lately, Tanzania and Kenya epitomise this disenchanting reality in East Africa. These new shooting numbers have defied the previous comforting trends constrained within the limits of previous routine tests. By May 3, the cumulative global COVID-19 cases had risen to 3.5 million with an improved recovery rate of 32% and a case fatality rate of 7%. This trend makes it clear that the earlier projection here (link) of 3.7 million cases by the end of May is going to be exceeded by a wide margin. This also means that the previous model assumption of continuing to witness persistently dwindling numbers in Africa, a latecomer in the staggering COVID-19 statistics, has been invalidated.

Since April 18th, the new global growth trend in cumulative COVID-19 cases has effectively entered a linear phase with a steep gradient, simulated here using:

This new equation projects the cumulative global numbers to hit 4 million by May 9, 4.6 million by mid-May, and 5.9 million by the end of May. This considerable difference from the previous projections proves just how the numbers can change quickly over…