COVID-19 in Kenya: Forgone Flattening Phase and Foreseeable Fourth Wave?

Modelling the latest trend after the entry of new variants

Nashon J. Adero
6 min readJun 9, 2021


A return to the tighter containment measures that restrict community transmission should be viewed more as a minimum pragmatic requirement than an extreme punitive intervention.

Key Highlights

The global case fatality rate has stabilised at 2.1% with Africa’s at 2.7%. The global recovery rate has stabilised at 89–90%, at par with Africa’s.

Africa’s share of the cumulative global COVID-19 cases and the active cases globally has been stable at 2.9%, but the share of global deaths ranging from 3.5–3.7%, has been higher than the expected equitable share.

At 0.07%, Kenya still maintains a higher probability of developing severe COVID-19 cases out of the cumulative cases, than the African and global average of about 0.05%.

Having been recording 3.5% of the total COVID-19 cases in Africa despite hosting 4% of Africa’s population, Kenya has been scoring higher on the danger side — through her higher shares of Africa’s active COVID-19 cases (14%) and severe cases (5–6%).

The latest mathematical model has informed a firm statement that starting May 19, shortly after the Indian variant was reported in Kenya, the country has lost the opportunity of the presumptive flattening of the third wave by June 12 at 172,354 cases. The total cases as at June 8 (173,072) were already 0.4% more than this simulated peak.

It remains likely, going by the latest business-as-usual trends, that the total cases in Kenya will hit…



Nashon J. Adero

A geospatial and systems modelling expert, lecturer, youth mentor and trained policy analyst, who applies system dynamics to model complex adaptive systems.