COVID-19 Status Map: Third Wave?

Is Kenya staring at the third wave? Projections from tried and tested modelling experience

For reasons that this research has attributed largely to time-delayed response and low sampling and testing efficacies, the surge in COVID-19 cases in Kenya this modelling series simulated to happen after the December festivities and subsequent school reopening in January 2021 was 21% higher than the confirmed total of 100,773 cases as at January 31, 2021. This was the highest difference between the simulated and confirmed end-month totals for Kenya since this modelling series started in early 2020. Noteworthy however, the period January — February 2021 saw a significantly reduced testing rate in Kenya, leading to a stagnation in the long-term daily average population-normalised testing rate at 66–67 tests per million people per day. It was not until March 7, 2021, that this rate increased to 68.

Updated COVID-19 Statistics as at March 8, 2021

On March 8, 2021, the global total had exceeded 117.6 million COVID-19 cases. The global case fatality rate was still rather sustained at 2.2% (compare 2.7% for Africa) and the global recovery rate at 79% (compare 89% for Africa). Compared to the global population, the shares of COVID-19 cases have been disproportionately lower in Africa. At almost 4 million, Africa’s COVID-19 cases on March 8, 2021 makes up only 3.4% of the global total though the continent hosts 17% of the global population. On the same date, Kenya had 2.7% of Africa’s total…