COVID and Vaccination Rates: Probability of Developing Severe Cases Highest in Africa and South America

The lowest probabilities of developing severe COVID cases found in Europe and North America

Nashon J. Adero
6 min readJul 31, 2021


Apart from COVID-19 responses informed by sound research and proof, everything else about the global pandemic remains opinion — a daring experiment in adventure and luxury.

Key Highlights

In July 2021, the proportional measures of COVID-19 cases had reached a point of relative stability in the continental shares, in terms of total cases, severe (serious or critical) cases, and COVID-19 deaths.

Asia, the most populous continent with almost 60% of the world’s population, has been leading in the share of global cases at 31%, followed by Europe (26%), North America (22%), South America (18%), Africa (3%), and lastly Oceania (less than 1%). Going by the population sizes of the continents, the much lower COVID-19 testing capacity in Africa, the second most populous continent after Asia with more than 17% of the global population, becomes evident in these revealing statistics.

But Asia has also posted the lowest case fatality rate (1.4%) as South America (3.1%) and Africa (2.5%) receive the worst hit on this metric.

Only Europe and North America are the continents whose shares of severe COVID-19 cases globally fall below the corresponding shares of the total cases globally. This is a bold outcome confirming that their leading vaccination rates are substantially reducing severe cases of COVID-19.

Henceforth, the fluid metric worth monitoring closely as new waves and variants arise is the probability of developing severe cases of COVID-19, by region and country. This will help inform the adequate pace and measures for containment, case management, and vaccination rates towards herd immunity.

The new trend of infections in late July leaves little room to be lackluster or lackadaisical about pronouncing the emergence of the earlier predicted fourth wave in Kenya.

Global Overview



Nashon J. Adero

A geospatial and systems modelling expert, lecturer, youth mentor and trained policy analyst, who applies system dynamics to model complex adaptive systems.