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Critical Insights into the Fourth COVID Wave in Kenya and Model Scenarios
Dilemma and decisions amid a long streak of high positivity rates
Key Highlights
The more contagious variants make it necessary to expect faster change cycles, hence the pragmatism of weekly monitoring and updates of the COVID-19 models used for calibrating containment policies and strategies.
The long streak of positivity rates in Kenya has persisted since June 9, 2021. The more contagious Delta variant must be a key part of the explanation.
As of August 11, 2021, there was still no sign of the curve flattening any time before October 2021.
The model scenarios project between 278,000 and 287,000 cases come October 1, 2021. This is a worrying trend that implies a daily average of at least 1,200 in new cases between August 11 and October 1, 2021.
Kenya must confront COVID-19 containment challenges with a strong dimension of data-driven timing and decisions based on scientific evidence.
The recent radical relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions by government should be treated as adventures meant to inform open-minded learning with a readiness to own up to mistakes and reverse action. They must not be final decisions impervious to the flow of evidentiary pointers to a radical reversal of previous policy action.
