Critical Insights into the Fourth COVID Wave in Kenya and Model Scenarios

Dilemma and decisions amid a long streak of high positivity rates

Nashon J. Adero
6 min readAug 12, 2021


Key Highlights

The more contagious variants make it necessary to expect faster change cycles, hence the pragmatism of weekly monitoring and updates of the COVID-19 models used for calibrating containment policies and strategies.

The long streak of positivity rates in Kenya has persisted since June 9, 2021. The more contagious Delta variant must be a key part of the explanation.

As of August 11, 2021, there was still no sign of the curve flattening any time before October 2021.

The model scenarios project between 278,000 and 287,000 cases come October 1, 2021. This is a worrying trend that implies a daily average of at least 1,200 in new cases between August 11 and October 1, 2021.

Kenya must confront COVID-19 containment challenges with a strong dimension of data-driven timing and decisions based on scientific evidence.

The recent radical relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions by government should be treated as adventures meant to inform open-minded learning with a readiness to own up to mistakes and reverse action. They must not be final decisions impervious to the flow of evidentiary pointers to a radical reversal of previous policy action.

Status Overview

As of August 11, 2021 the total cases globally had exceeded 205 million with a global positivity rate of 2.1% and a recovery rate of 90%. These hitherto steady metrics reflect the general trend across the world. In Africa, the case fatality rate has been 2.5% with a recovery rate of 88%. South America has maintained the highest case fatality rate of 3.1%.

As discussed extensively in the previous article in this research and modelling series, the likelihood of developing severe (serous or critical) cases out of all the reported COVID-19 cases is the more fluid metric that countries that have not vaccinated a sufficient percentage of their populations — hence still far from herd immunity, need to monitor closely. These severe cases require HDU and ICU care. This position has been vindicated as severe cases rise.

In less than two weeks, the probability of developing severe cases has changed substantially in the countries and regions with low…



Nashon J. Adero

A geospatial and systems modelling expert, lecturer, youth mentor and trained policy analyst, who applies system dynamics to model complex adaptive systems.