How will Kenya’s COVID-19 Curve Respond to New Variants?
Telling metrics from a simplified mathematical model
4 min readMay 13, 2021
Key Highlights
At 164,386 total cases on May 12, 2021, the curve of Kenya’s third COVID-19 wave has since February 26 stayed close to the simulated ebbing path, mathematically within 1%. The ebbing path has simulated a mathematical peak of 166,775 cumulative cases on May 26, 2021 — now only two weeks away.
The mathematical model developed in this study series for Kenya did not factor in…
