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New Variants, New COVID Containment Challenges: Quantifying the Surge

Early signs of Kenya’s third wave getting disrupted by the Indian variant

Nashon J. Adero
5 min readMay 21, 2021

Key Highlights

The emerging trend of new cases since the Indian variant was confirmed in Kenya, 15 cases reported as of May 12, has been shifting the COVID curve upwards. Kenya has consequently moved from the 8th to the 7th position in Africa’s list of top country cases.

The emerging curve in Kenya has the potential to be a ravaging wave on a decisively westward course, and one whose track can only be reversed using resolute countermeasures and timely anticipatory interventions.

Key factors such as citizen behaviour and testing efficacy aside, the newly detected Indian variant ravaging the western city of Kisumu must be a critical part of the new equation of growth for the recent surge of COVID-19 cases in western Kenya and the overall rise in the national tally.

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Nashon J. Adero
Nashon J. Adero

Written by Nashon J. Adero

A geospatial and systems modelling expert, lecturer, youth mentor and trained policy analyst, who applies system dynamics to model complex adaptive systems.

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