Post-COVID-19 Roadmap of Recovery and Resilience: Risks and Pitfalls

Model scenarios, public perspectives, and implications for reopening in Kenya

Pondering pathways for coping with a pandemic which is determined to be endemic is ultimately a marathon exercise in managing complexity. Short-termism has no chance. Routine tools of tactical combat must give more room to strategic plans supported by collective long-term commitments by governments and citizens alike.

Covid-19 Trends: Global

Since April 18, the global mathematical simulation equation for cumulative Covid-19 cases has been:

Brazil and Russia have overtaken Spain and the UK in cumulative Covid-19 cases to rank second and third after the USA, respectively. The projection based on this equation was to hit 6 million cases by May 31. Assuming the growth trend maintains, the cases will comfortably reach 7 million by June 10 and 8 million by June 21, 2020.

In Africa, significantly increasing Covid-19 testing rates are becoming a common trend. If there occurs a substantial spike in country cases, these projections can be exceeded by far. The most probable reasons are, first, an increase in testing rates unearthing rising cases from community clusters, as has been the case in Kenya…