Strategic Intelligence from Africa’s Evolving COVID-19 Scenario Maps

Managing the pandemic in Africa has a strong component in improving the testing capacity, behaviour and recovery rates

Changing Phases of Africa’s COVID-19 Curve

Under the Impact Borderless Digital (IBD) research articles, we have since March 13 sustained regular and adaptive modelling of COVID-19 scenarios globally, across Africa, and for some of the 47 counties of interest in Kenya. The last article made the following model projections against the actual cases realised as shown in brackets.

World: 17 million on July 25 (16.2 million realised); 19 million on August 1 (18 million realised)

Africa: 871,452–1,118,495 on July 31 (909,712 realised)

USA: 4 million on July 22 (4,102,038 realised); 4.7 million on July 31 (4,707,099 realised)

Brazil: 2.50 million on July 26 (2.42 million realised); 2.75 million on July 31 (2.67 million realised); 3.00 million on August 5 (2.86 million realised) — further projected to 3.83 million on August 20

India: One million on July 17 (1,040,457million realised); 1.4–1.6 million on July 31 (1,697,054 million realised) — further projected to 2.21–3.18 million on August 20

Russia: 842,818–901,493 on August 1 (845,443 realised) — further projected to reach 1,137,412 cases on November 20, 2020 on the optimistic curve