Surprises of World Cup 2022

Lessons from Mathematical Models

“Mathematician’s model suggesting France can bank on a knife-edge 1.1% mean marginal advantage over England in the World Cup Quarter-Finals, likely a one-goal difference. If serendipity favours England at 70%, then England can emerge victorious, even with a two-goal difference. If France snatches lady luck from England, then England will be soaked in bitter tears as France widens the gap, even by at least three goals.”

Towards the Quarter-Final, the model mean marginal advantages are more concrete, where 1.7% is likely to result in a difference of one goal. The upper margin for a likely tie tends to be 0.7%.

A World Cup of Inordinate Surprises

The World Cup captures the imagination and dreams of nations. It brings us together in diversity. Isn’t the World Cup, therefore, a great opportunity to popularise and socialise mathematics, which is otherwise a dreaded subject boring to the majority within classroom walls? Are mathematics scholars modelling the World Cup to prove to the world that mathematics is the most powerful language for rational decision-making, based on data?

The author of Soccermatics, a professor of mathematics called David Sumpter, has already shown the way in applying mathematics to model football outcomes. His approach is advanced, targeting postgraduate students. To demystify football modelling and present a simple but useful model, I tested a model during the 2018…