Surprises of World Cup 2022

“Mathematician’s model suggesting France can bank on a knife-edge 1.1% mean marginal advantage over England in the World Cup Quarter-Finals, likely a one-goal difference. If serendipity favours England at 70%, then England can emerge victorious, even with a two-goal difference. If France snatches lady luck from England, then England will be soaked in bitter tears as France widens the gap, even by at least three goals.”

Towards the Quarter-Final, the model mean marginal advantages are more concrete…