The Trend of Developing Severe COVID-19 Cases

What are the key lessons?

Key Highlights

• As of 4th January 2022, just half (51%) of the global population had been fully vaccinated, the lowest percentage in Africa with just 13.6 percent of the population receiving at least one dose of a vaccine (Covid World Vaccination Tracker — The New York Times (nytimes.com).
• The lower vaccination rates in Africa as of 4th January 2022 could partly explain the higher case fatality rate (2.3%) in Africa, more than the global average (1.9%). Lately, less than 2% case fatality rate has been recorded in Oceania (0.6%), Asia (1.5%), and Europe (1.7%). South America has, however, been recoding a higher case fatality rate, of 3%.

Regional Probability of Developing Severe COVID-19 Cases

The likelihood of developing severe cases of COVID-19 is a crucial metric. The severe cases are either serious or critical, requiring ICU attention. This metric is calculated here as a simple mathematical probability, in terms of the severe cases as a percentage of the total cases reported. The metric has been noted to be varying across regions, from 0.02% in Africa to 0.04% in North America. As of 4th January 2022, the likelihood of developing severe COVID-19 cases still remained lower in Africa (0.022%) than in North America (0.037%), South America (0.032%), Asia (0.032%), Oceania (0.030%), and Europe (0.025%).