World Cup Winner Prediction Model: Argentina’s Mathematical Advantage

All the possible combinations give Argentina a bankable margin

Nashon J. Adero

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The matching fate that has placed France against either Argentina or Croatia in the World Cup has diminished the defending champion’s chances of reclaiming a repeat title.

Key Highlights

  • The World Cup tournament is a great learning experience and opportunity, ranging from life lessons to the practical application of mathematics and science.
  • The prediction model used here gives Argentina more marginal advantages than France to win the 2022 World Cup title. On a balance of probabilities, France is the greatest threat to Argentina’s quest for the World Cup title in this mathematical model.
  • If Croatia beats Argentina, then it will be very hard for France or Morocco to beat Croatia to the title.
  • The matching fate that has placed France against either Argentina or Croatia in the World Cup has diminished the defending champion’s chances of reclaiming a repeat title. France must battle a slippery and razor-thin margin of 0.5% separating it from either of the two teams, hence a likely draw with a final decision through penalty shootouts. The penalty precision of Croatia is to be dreaded by any opponent.
  • Morocco can win the World Cup under the surprising model scenario that tends to favour the perceived underdog, in this case going uphill and overturning the mean marginal advantages the opponents have over it: 1.3% for Croatia and 2.3% for Argentina.

Transformative Significance of the World Cup

In a world of diversity, the World Cup remains a potent integrator as football fans decorate our screens every four years. Each tournament is unique, the forward-ever technological advances being a key modifier of every subsequent World Cup experience.

The first time I watched the World Cup, we were students in a rustic school without electricity. The head teacher was kind enough to power his TV from his car battery to allow us to revel in the unifying ecstasy of the adored game. West Germany beat Argentina 1–0 to win the tournament. The year was 1990. Internet was still unheard of in Kenya. From this exhilarating experience fortified by engaging slow-motion replays, our interest in mathematics and sciences soared high as we…

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Nashon J. Adero

A geospatial and systems modelling expert, lecturer, youth mentor and trained policy analyst, who applies system dynamics to model complex adaptive systems.