World Cup Winner Prediction Model: Argentina’s Mathematical Advantage
All the possible combinations give Argentina a bankable margin
10 min readDec 13, 2022
The matching fate that has placed France against either Argentina or Croatia in the World Cup has diminished the defending champion’s chances of reclaiming a repeat title.
Key Highlights
- The World Cup tournament is a great learning experience and opportunity, ranging from life lessons to the practical application of mathematics and science.
- The prediction model used here gives Argentina more marginal advantages than France to win the 2022 World Cup title. On a balance of probabilities, France is the greatest threat to Argentina’s quest for the World Cup title in this mathematical model.
- If Croatia beats Argentina, then it will be very hard for France or Morocco to beat Croatia to the title.
- The matching fate that has placed France against either Argentina or Croatia in the World Cup has diminished the defending champion’s chances of reclaiming a repeat title. France must battle a slippery and razor-thin margin of 0.5% separating it from either of the two teams, hence a likely draw with a final decision through penalty shootouts. The penalty precision of Croatia is to be dreaded by any opponent.
- Morocco can win the World Cup under the surprising model scenario that tends to favour the perceived underdog, in this case going uphill…
