Reflections on key insights and implications for disaster governance in Kenya and Africa

Finally, Hope on the Horizon

On a day when Kenya received the first batch of 1.025 million doses of COVID-19 AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine under the global COVAX initiative, just after Ghana, this IBD multiscale modelling series takes you down memory lane and shares fresh perspectives on the manner and meaning of the COVID-19 curves it has been studying over the last one year. The yearlong study has also led to a successful book project, The Future of Africa in the Post-COVID-19 World, the book to be launched by the end of March 2021. This has been an exciting journey of substance, surprises, and scaling of new…


It is high time mentorship efforts started focusing more on developing learners while they are still in college to prepare them for the world of work. The usual wait to start real mentorship after they have graduated is a whole stage too late, dealing a heavy blow on industry efforts like a fall off the cliff edge.

Youth Despair and Cliff Edge Experience

The International Mentors Day was celebrated on January 17, 2021. The following reflections can do justice to such an important day in the present and future of youth.

Mentorship remains a priceless endeavour, a genuine call to be a multiplier of the little…


The plane-mirror view throws a virtual image of bygone headwaters of COVID-19 in Africa, but the real image downstream could turn out to be different especially if we peek at the sorry state of basic schools in deprived environments.

Education Sector Management as a Mirror of Leadership

COVID-19 has dealt the education sector a major blow, a complex sector deeply embedded in social systems. Though it is undisputed that social systems are more complex than mechanical systems, more research and rigorous attention has been given to designing courses of action that address mechanical or technological systems, than social systems. Isn’t it a paradox to relegate decisions that affect…


Modelling the latest trend after the entry of new variants

A return to the tighter containment measures that restrict community transmission should be viewed more as a minimum pragmatic requirement than an extreme punitive intervention.

Key Highlights

The global case fatality rate has stabilised at 2.1% with Africa’s at 2.7%. The global recovery rate has stabilised at 89–90%, at par with Africa’s.

Africa’s share of the cumulative global COVID-19 cases and the active cases globally has been stable at 2.9%, but the share of global deaths ranging from 3.5–3.7%, has been higher than the expected equitable share.

At 0.07%, Kenya still maintains a higher probability of developing severe COVID-19 cases out of…


What are the implications for calibrating containment measures in Kenya?

A year later, confirmed cases have multiplied a hundred times, making COVID-19 live up to its character once described in this series as a disruptive, distractive, destructive and distancing disease.

Key Highlights

Africa has been claiming 3.7% of the global COVID-19 deaths, a higher share than her 2.9% share of the global COVID-19 cases — implying a higher likelihood of COVID-19 deaths on the continent than the global average.

The share of severe (serious or critical) cases out of active cases has also been higher in Africa at 0.8% than the global average of 0.6%.

Kenya has been posting some worrying statistics…


Early signs of Kenya’s third wave getting disrupted by the Indian variant

Key Highlights

The emerging trend of new cases since the Indian variant was confirmed in Kenya, 15 cases reported as of May 12, has been shifting the COVID curve upwards. Kenya has consequently moved from the 8th to the 7th position in Africa’s list of top country cases.

The emerging curve in Kenya has the potential to be a ravaging wave on a decisively westward course, and one whose track can only be reversed using resolute countermeasures and timely anticipatory interventions.

Key factors such as citizen behaviour and testing efficacy aside, the newly detected Indian variant ravaging the western city of Kisumu…


Telling metrics from a simplified mathematical model

Key Highlights

At 164,386 total cases on May 12, 2021, the curve of Kenya’s third COVID-19 wave has since February 26 stayed close to the simulated ebbing path, mathematically within 1%. The ebbing path has simulated a mathematical peak of 166,775 cumulative cases on May 26, 2021 — now only two weeks away.

The mathematical model developed in this study series for Kenya did not factor in the Indian variant, which as of May 12 had been confirmed among 15 people in Kenya.

As a policy metric, assuming the established testing rate in Kenya, exceeding a daily average of 171 new cases…


New insights from the model of scenarios

Key Highlights

As India battles her second wave with daily global records of new cases, Kenya’s third wave could be ebbing by late May, but perhaps only to test this well-known home of optimists and marathoners with a tactical retreat that may eventually give way to a more vicious fourth wave if the government, politicians, and the public quickly lower their guard in their characteristic response amid pandemic fatigue.

The rate of vaccination in Africa lags far behind the rest of the world, signalling the possibility of missing the target of vaccinating 60% of the population by the end of 2022. …


Simulating the wavy flows of an increasingly familiar enemy in Kenya

Key Highlights

The highest recovery rates globally have been more than 90%, Israel posting the highest rate of 99% currently with an impressive combination of a very low case fatality rate of 0.8% as of April 22. Turkey has similar impressive scores with a high recovery rate of 87% and a case fatality rate of 0.8%.

The fact that India and Brazil have stayed in the top-three global position of the ravaged league of leading COVID-19 country cases despite having lower population-normalised testing rates is telling: these two countries may in the long term turn the tables on the USA with high…


Critical insights from mathematical modelling

Key Highlights

Like a beckoning vista of mountain ranges, every move closer to winning this war reveals the scale masking the disguised distance setting apart the distant milestones.

As we all desire an end to the pandemic so as to enjoy free social interactions in the campestral beauty of our diverse open fields, welcoming and practising all the recommended containment measures must remain our first line of defence.

The wavy nature of the infections in Kenya has established a sinusoidal curve which reaches its peak every four months. Could this be telling of a fourth wave starting July 2021?

Global Overview

As of April…

Nashon J. Adero

A geospatial and systems modelling expert, lecturer, youth mentor and trained policy analyst, who applies system dynamics to model complex adaptive systems.

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store