Such are the lessons of life, coded in nature and time, waiting to be decoded through a readiness to experience, unlearn, relearn, and rediscover.

Photo credit: Nashon Adero, June 2019.

The rules of scoring goals in life can vary from simple counts, quality, and on to the grace of style, further graduated along personalised timescales.

Shaka Ssali, the pioneer host of the VOA’s Straight Talk Africa, put it rightly: the shortest distance between two points in life is not a straight line, but a detour. Fact. The rules of scoring goals in life can vary from simple counts, quality, an on to the grace of style…


Key Highlights

§ It has become a global urgency to calibrate COVID-19 containment policies in informed ways that can avoid long-term economic recession from over-protection or eventually explosive health risks due to over-relaxation and pandemic fatigue.

§ To avoid falling below or exceeding the optimal standards needed to strike a healthy balance between protecting health and promoting the economy, the calibration of country COVID-19 containment measures must be informed by transparent and reliable data as well as scientifically sound decision models.

§ Based on the reported cumulative cases, Europe has become the region with the lowest probability of developing severe cases of…


Finally, Hope on the Horizon

On a day when Kenya received the first batch of 1.025 million doses of COVID-19 AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine under the global COVAX initiative, just after Ghana, this IBD multiscale modelling series takes you down memory lane and shares fresh perspectives on the manner and meaning of the COVID-19 curves it has been studying over the last one year. The yearlong study has also led to a successful book project, The Future of Africa in the Post-COVID-19 World, the book to be launched by the end of March 2021. This has been an exciting journey of substance, surprises, and scaling of new…


It is high time mentorship efforts started focusing more on developing learners while they are still in college to prepare them for the world of work. The usual wait to start real mentorship after they have graduated is a whole stage too late, dealing a heavy blow on industry efforts like a fall off the cliff edge.

Youth Despair and Cliff Edge Experience

The International Mentors Day was celebrated on January 17, 2021. The following reflections can do justice to such an important day in the present and future of youth.

Mentorship remains a priceless endeavour, a genuine call to be a multiplier of the little…


The plane-mirror view throws a virtual image of bygone headwaters of COVID-19 in Africa, but the real image downstream could turn out to be different especially if we peek at the sorry state of basic schools in deprived environments.

Education Sector Management as a Mirror of Leadership

COVID-19 has dealt the education sector a major blow, a complex sector deeply embedded in social systems. Though it is undisputed that social systems are more complex than mechanical systems, more research and rigorous attention has been given to designing courses of action that address mechanical or technological systems, than social systems. Isn’t it a paradox to relegate decisions that affect…


Key Highlights

The more contagious variants make it necessary to expect faster change cycles, hence the pragmatism of weekly monitoring and updates of the COVID-19 models used for calibrating containment policies and strategies.

The long streak of positivity rates in Kenya has persisted since June 9, 2021. The more contagious Delta variant must be a key part of the explanation.

As of August 11, 2021, there was still no sign of the curve flattening any time before October 2021.

The model scenarios project between 278,000 and 287,000 cases come October 1, 2021. …


Apart from COVID-19 responses informed by sound research and proof, everything else about the global pandemic remains opinion — a daring experiment in adventure and luxury.

Key Highlights

In July 2021, the proportional measures of COVID-19 cases had reached a point of relative stability in the continental shares, in terms of total cases, severe (serious or critical) cases, and COVID-19 deaths.

Asia, the most populous continent with almost 60% of the world’s population, has been leading in the share of global cases at 31%, followed by Europe (26%), North America (22%), South America (18%), Africa (3%), and lastly Oceania (less than 1%)…


A country which has experienced three COVID-19 waves can bank on modelling experience as a periscope to sneak a peek at the character and peak of a new wave lurking around the corner.

The easier part of scholarship is to understand the complex as one acquires knowledge. The harder part is to move from the complex to the simple, so as to provide and explain practical solutions in ways similar to the beaten path of nature’s efficiency. …


A return to the tighter containment measures that restrict community transmission should be viewed more as a minimum pragmatic requirement than an extreme punitive intervention.

Key Highlights

The global case fatality rate has stabilised at 2.1% with Africa’s at 2.7%. The global recovery rate has stabilised at 89–90%, at par with Africa’s.

Africa’s share of the cumulative global COVID-19 cases and the active cases globally has been stable at 2.9%, but the share of global deaths ranging from 3.5–3.7%, has been higher than the expected equitable share.

At 0.07%, Kenya still maintains a higher probability of developing severe COVID-19 cases out of…


A year later, confirmed cases have multiplied a hundred times, making COVID-19 live up to its character once described in this series as a disruptive, distractive, destructive and distancing disease.

Key Highlights

Africa has been claiming 3.7% of the global COVID-19 deaths, a higher share than her 2.9% share of the global COVID-19 cases — implying a higher likelihood of COVID-19 deaths on the continent than the global average.

The share of severe (serious or critical) cases out of active cases has also been higher in Africa at 0.8% than the global average of 0.6%.

Kenya has been posting some worrying statistics…

Nashon J. Adero

A geospatial and systems modelling expert, lecturer, youth mentor and trained policy analyst, who applies system dynamics to model complex adaptive systems.

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