Model insights into emerging scenarios with variants of concern

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Reflections on key insights and implications for disaster governance in Kenya and Africa

Finally, Hope on the Horizon

On a day when Kenya received the first batch of 1.025 million doses of COVID-19 AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine under the global COVAX initiative, just after Ghana, this IBD multiscale modelling series takes you down memory lane and shares fresh perspectives on the manner and meaning of the COVID-19 curves it has been studying over the last one year. The yearlong study has also led to a successful book project, The Future of Africa in the Post-COVID-19 World, the book to be launched by the end of March 2021. This has been an exciting journey of substance, surprises, and scaling of new…


It is high time mentorship efforts started focusing more on developing learners while they are still in college to prepare them for the world of work. The usual wait to start real mentorship after they have graduated is a whole stage too late, dealing a heavy blow on industry efforts like a fall off the cliff edge.

Youth Despair and Cliff Edge Experience

The International Mentors Day was celebrated on January 17, 2021. The following reflections can do justice to such an important day in the present and future of youth.

Mentorship remains a priceless endeavour, a genuine call to be a multiplier of the little…


The plane-mirror view throws a virtual image of bygone headwaters of COVID-19 in Africa, but the real image downstream could turn out to be different especially if we peek at the sorry state of basic schools in deprived environments.

Education Sector Management as a Mirror of Leadership

COVID-19 has dealt the education sector a major blow, a complex sector deeply embedded in social systems. Though it is undisputed that social systems are more complex than mechanical systems, more research and rigorous attention has been given to designing courses of action that address mechanical or technological systems, than social systems. Isn’t it a paradox to relegate decisions that affect…


The lowest probabilities of developing severe COVID cases found in Europe and North America

Apart from COVID-19 responses informed by sound research and proof, everything else about the global pandemic remains opinion — a daring experiment in adventure and luxury.

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Telling signs of a fourth wave in Kenya

The easier part of scholarship is to understand the complex as one acquires knowledge. The harder part is to move from the complex to the simple, so as to provide and explain practical solutions in ways similar to the beaten path of nature’s efficiency. …


Modelling the latest trend after the entry of new variants

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The global case fatality rate has stabilised at 2.1% with Africa’s at 2.7%. The global recovery rate has stabilised at 89–90%, at par with Africa’s.

Africa’s share of the cumulative global COVID-19 cases and the active cases globally has been stable at 2.9%, but the share of global deaths ranging from 3.5–3.7%, has been higher than the expected equitable share.

At 0.07%, Kenya still maintains a higher probability of developing severe COVID-19 cases out of…


What are the implications for calibrating containment measures in Kenya?

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Africa has been claiming 3.7% of the global COVID-19 deaths, a higher share than her 2.9% share of the global COVID-19 cases — implying a higher likelihood of COVID-19 deaths on the continent than the global average.

The share of severe (serious or critical) cases out of active cases has also been higher in Africa at 0.8% than the global average of 0.6%.

Kenya has been posting some worrying statistics…


Early signs of Kenya’s third wave getting disrupted by the Indian variant

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The emerging trend of new cases since the Indian variant was confirmed in Kenya, 15 cases reported as of May 12, has been shifting the COVID curve upwards. Kenya has consequently moved from the 8th to the 7th position in Africa’s list of top country cases.

The emerging curve in Kenya has the potential to be a ravaging wave on a decisively westward course, and one whose track can only be reversed using resolute countermeasures and timely anticipatory interventions.

Key factors such as citizen behaviour and testing efficacy aside, the newly detected Indian variant ravaging the western city of Kisumu…


Telling metrics from a simplified mathematical model

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Nashon J. Adero

A geospatial and systems modelling expert, lecturer, youth mentor and trained policy analyst, who applies system dynamics to model complex adaptive systems.

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